My Oscar Nomination Predictions

Here are my final predictions of who I think will get Oscar nominations. This is something I do every year. I've always been fascinated by the Oscars (as you can probably tell if you've ever read this blog).  It's not the celebrity part of it, or the fashion, or the speeches that fascinate me.  It's the race, the competition to get a nomination.  There have been numerous critics groups and other entities that have given out awards, and tons of people who try to predict these things online.  It intrigues me how studios strategize about who to promote, when to release films, when to send screeners to voters, who will appear on what talk show when, who gains momentum after a nomination from one critics group but loses traction after they're ignored by the next one, etc., etc.

Yes, you can argue that the campaigning and the politics takes away from recognizing the "best" film or the "best" performance.  For one, anyone who thinks they can identify a "best" film or a "best" performance in any given year is crazy.  The race to the Oscars is one big economics problem (supply/demand, cost/benefit, etc), and I love it!

Here's my futile attempt at predicting.  We'll see how I do.  These are not my preferences - they are my predictions.  You can see my running list of rankings in my previous post.

Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
 
Anywhere from 5-10 films can be nominated this year. No one knows yet how many will be nominated, but I think it will be these seven. Just a hunch.

Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorcese, Hugo
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Actor in a Lead Role
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Actress in a Lead Role
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Actress in a Supporting Role
Bernice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Original Screenplay
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball

Film Editing
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse

Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tree of Life
War Horse

Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Costume Design
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Sound Editing
The Adventures of Tintin
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
War Horse

Sound Mixing
Drive
Hugo
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
War Horse

Makeup
Albert Nobbs 
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady

Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Rise of the Planey of the Apes
Transformers: The Dark of the Moon

Original Score
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse
W.E.

Original Song
"Hello, Hello", Gnomeo and Juliet
"Lay Your Head Down", Albert Nobbs
"Life's A Happy Song", The Muppets
"The Living Proof", The Help
"Man or Muppet", The Muppets

Documentary Feature
Buck
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Project Nim
Semper Fi: Always Faithful

Documentary Short
The Barber of Birmingham
In Tahrir Square: 18 Days of Egypt's Unfinished Revolution
Incident in New Baghdad
Pipe Dreams
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Animated Feature
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Animated Short
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
Luminaris
Magic Piano
Wild Life

Live-Action Short
Love at First Sight
The Road Home
The Roar of the Sea
The Shore
Tuba Atlantic

Foreign-Language Feature
Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Pina
A Separation