Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

Oscar nominations are being announced on Thursday morning.  Here are my final nomination predictions:

Best Picture

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

Moonrise Kingdom

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Denzel Washington, Flight

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Argo

Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Master

Judi Dench, Skyfall

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Django Unchained

Looper

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Silver Linings Playbook

Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Cinematography

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

Skyfall

Production Design

Anna Karenina

Cloud Atlas

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Sound Mixing

The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises

Les Miserables

Zero Dark Thirty

Skyfall

Sound Editing

The Avengers

The Dark Knight Rises

Life of Pi
Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Snow White and the Huntsmen

Original Score

Anna Karenina

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Original Song

“Ancora Qui” – Django Unchained

“Learn Me Right” - Brave

“Skyfall” – Skyfall

“Suddenly” – Les Miserables

“This Gift” – The Odd Life of Timothy Green

Foreign Language Film

A Royal Affair

Amour

Beyond the Hills

The Intouchables

Kon-Tiki

Documentary Feature

5 Broken Cameras

The Gatekeepers

How to Survive a Plague

The Imposter

Searching for Sugar Man

Best Animated Feature

Brave

Frankenweenie

The Painting

ParaNorman

Wreck-It Ralph

Best Visual Effects

The Avengers

The Dark Knight Rises

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Makeup and Hairstyling

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Lincoln

Men in Black 3

Best Animated Short

Adam and Dog

The Eagleman Stag

Fall of the House of Usher

Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare

Paperman

Best Live Action Short

Asad

Curfew

Death of a Shadow

9meter

when you find me

Best Documentary Short

Education of Mohammed Hussein

Mondays at Racine

Open Heart

Paraiso

Redemption

Commentary 

• I have Lincoln earning 13 nominations, which would leave it one shy of tying for the most-nominated film in Oscar history.
• I really hesitate nominating "Maggie Simpson in the Longest Daycare" for Best Animated Short.  If something replaces it, it will be "Dripped."
• I have Skyfall earning six nominations, which would make it the most-nominated film to not earn a Best Picture nomination.
• I know I'm wrong on Best Picture because there are no curveballs. Contenders I considered for the curveball spot were Amour, The Impossible, The Perks of Being a Wallflower and Skyfall.
• There's almost always a non-famous animated film in the Best Animated Film category. I expect that to be The Painting.
• My most "shockeroo" prediction would be Matthew McConaughey. He has received no support for his performance in Magic Mike except from critics. However, I think anyone that wants to vote for him based on the year he's had (Bernie, Magic Mike, The Paperboy, Killer Joe) will vote for his performance in Magic Mike.  Also, I think anyone that actually votes for him will place him high on the ballot.

Oscar Night

Well that wraps it up for me. Good show, good winners, tired fingers. Now what am I going to write about on this blog for the rest of the year? Hopefully by this time next year, my plans for culturetilt.com will be in place and the Oscars will be a more interactive experience.

10:58PM - Wait, what? No, "let's recap the nominees". No "please look at this final montage." Adam Shankman must have been backstage saying hurry it up. The Hurt Locker wins Best Picture. I can respect that the voters weren't tempted to give another one to Cameron. 15/24.

10:56PM - 59 years old but looks like she's 40 Kathryn Bigelow wins Best Director, making her the first female Best Director. But how is this the "second nomination tonight"? They haven't announced Best Picture yet. 14/23.

10:52PM - Sandra Bullock wins Best Actress. I've always liked Sandra, so I'm happy. Did they just call Barbra Streisand "Barber"? 13/22.

10:36PM - Jeff Bridges wins. I like the "I will talk about you because I know you" approach better than what they did last year. Sandra vs. Meryl, James vs. Kathryn showdowns after the commercial break. 12/21.

10:26PM - So they are going ahead and having friends of the nominees present the lead acting categories, instead of random former winners. No matter how they do it, I'm glad they kept the idea of having each nominee individually honored. But, I'm pretty sure Kate Winslet will come out after these people leave and actually give out the award.

10:18PM - Read this online and thought it was interesting. The reason Mo'Nique wore a bright blue dress with a flower in her hair is because Hattie McDaniel, the 1939 Best Supporting Actress for Gone with the Wind and the first African-American Oscar winner, wore the same outfit when she won. And because of El Secretos de Sus Ojos winning Best Foreign Film, I'm pretty sure I just lost my office Oscar pool. 11/20.

10:08PM - Tyler Perry, it's not all about you, you know. But hey, good try. The Hurt Locker wins Editing. So, looks like HL is winning Best Picture. 11/19.

10:05PM - I'll admit, the only reason I predicted The Cove is because prediction sites were telling me to. Penguins won a few years ago; dolphins win this year. Always vote for animals. That short clip of Food, Inc. makes me want to hit up the local Farmer's Market more this year. The Cove wins. Why does Fisher Stevens look familiar? 10/18.

9:55PM - Avatar wins Visual Effects. Oh my god I can't believe it. I did not see this coming from a mile away. This is the most shocking.... 9/17.

9:53PM - As my previously referenced hero Robert Ebert pointed out on his Twitter, Farrah Fawcett was left off the In Memoriam segment. And here come the dancers! Not bad. Uh, George, what were you doing there? Up wins. 8/16. And again, at .500.

9:43PM - I guess I should make a "how's it going" comment. I'm actually really enjoying it. Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin are doing a great job, but I always like it when Steve Martin hosts. The clip segments are good, but I can tell now this is going to run longer than three hours. But, good job and not near as "young-skewing" as I thought it would be. Hopefully I'm not speaking too soon - the So You Think You Can Dance dancers haven't been on yet.

9:37PM - This was one of my upset predictions.......and I was wrong. Avatar wins Cinematography. 7/15.

9:25PM - Sound categories. Not much to say. The Hurt Locker steals one of Avatar's technical awards. But I predicted The Hurt Locker winning Mixing. Watch me get it backward. Nope, HL wins Mixing too. 7/14.

9:21PM - I can respect the tribute to horror films, but it still seems pretty random. Hey filmmakers, if you make a horror film you have hardly any chance at all of ever getting nominated, so we'll show some clips in a three-minute montage and call it good, mmmkay?

9:11PM - Again, didn't Sarah Jessica Parker present costumes last year too? Seeing Tom Ford makes me remember how much A Single Man was robbed in numerous categories. The Young Victoria wins and I'm batting .500. 6/12.

9:07PM - Avatar wins Art Direction. Why did they have the star of Avatar present an Oscar to Avatar? 5/11.

9:01PM - I was wondering who they would get to present Best Supporting Actress (because Heath Ledger was last year's winner)...I think Robin Williams is a great choice. Mo'Nique wins and gets a standing ovation. Very to the point speech. Kinda wanted more from her. Anyway, my drought is over. 4/10.

8:50PM - I always like the way they present the Screenplay nominees. Precious wins Adapted Screenplay. First shocker of the night; no one was predicting that. But, much deserved. 3/9.

8:40PM - OMG Ben Stiller...can't wait for the Zoolander sequel (yes, there's going to be a Zoolander sequel); Star Trek wins Makeup...why did I predict The Young Victoria? 3/8 (this is rough).

8:36PM - I watched all of the short film nominees in the theater. They were all fantastic, so I really had no idea which ones to predict. Logorama wins Best Animated Short. Not my prediction, but it was my "should have won" (at least in my mind). Music by Prudence wins Doc Short (sure) - haha crazy lady charges the stage...no one cares....and we get the first cut off the mic of the night; The New Tenants wins Live Action Short...funny short. 3/7.

8:23PM - Hughes tribute. Very tasteful. Nice to see Molly Ringwold and some of the other Hughes crew again. A little surprised they didn't get a standing O though.

8:16PM - They should have Tina Fey present something other than Screenplay sometime. Yes, she's a writer. I get it. She can do more. But once again, very funny. The Hurt Locker wins Original. My first miss. 3/4.

8:04PM - I certainly appreciate how doing Best Original Song this way cuts a lot of time out of the telecast, but I'd like more than 30 seconds of each song. Winner is "The Weary Kind." Woot. 3/3.

7:57PM - Trivia - you wanna know how The Secret of Kells got nominated? They screened it for a week in LA, and nowhere else. Apparently enough important people saw it. Dammit, bring back "And the Oscar goes to...". Up wins Animated Feature. 2/2.

7:45PM - I'm liking the multi-layered, multi-scene clips. I don't think we'll get them for the leading categories, but for now they're nice. But, "and the winner is..."?? Boo. Anyway, Christolph Waltz, as expected. 1/1. Wait, I don't think he was done with his speech.

7:37PM - I'm really liking how Steve and Alec are playing off each other. And I love how Meryl Streep is a good sport.

7:32PM - Okay, so Neil Patrick Harris is who Seacrest was referencing. I really like NPH, but hopefully this isn't in place of a monologue.

7:31PM - Introducing the 10 lead acting nominees - awkward.

7:27PM - Oscar producer Bill Mechanic is promising this will be the "best Oscar opening ever." Let's see...

7:23PM - Every year, actors are built up so much as "locks" that I think I would really feel bad for any of them that lost. Remember how Eddie Murphy was touted as a lock for Dreamgirls, yet lost to Alan Arkin? He was pissed.

7:19PM - Hey Whoopi Goldberg, you're a former Oscar winner. We should honor you by showing a commercial about your bladder leakage to an audience of billions.

7:13PM - Seeing the 1947, 2010 10-nominee lineups makes me think about how many of this year's 10 will be obscure in about five years.

7:00PM - I don't like how ABC does their own red carpet show. Just start the show at 7 dangit.

6:46PM - Ryan Seacrest just possibly implied that Kanye West will be doing something at the Oscars - WTF?

The Oscars - This Better Be Good...

I have a strange feeling about this year’s Oscars.

Hollywood is changing and I need to accept that. I’ve read the daily press releases about who is presenting or appearing. Taylor Lautner. Kellen Lutz. Kristen Stewart. Basically every person of importance from Twilight/New Moon except Robert Pattinson. Miley Cyrus. Zac Efron. I wouldn’t be surprised if they announced that Justin Bieber and Ke$ha were appearing. Basically, people who have had careers shorter than the amount of time it took to make Avatar. Now I have to say, I’m not too concerned with Zac Efron being included. With Me and Orson Welles, he is at least trying to take on roles that move him past the teen heartthrob image. But this, along with the announcement that the show will feature dancers from So You Think You Can Dance, leaves me with the feeling that it will be less about the honor of the awards and more about the “let’s get ratings and skew younger.” I’m not a fan.

They are also doing some interesting things that I’ll have to see before I pass judgment. They are doing a tribute to John Hughes above and beyond the In Memoriam segment. They are supposedly doing a tribute to horror films. Keanu Reeves is presenting for some reason??? Well, I’m pretty sure I know why he’s presenting. For Best Actor and Best Actress, they are supposed to be bringing out old friends and colleagues of each of the nominees to introduce them. But really? On Sandra’s big night, you’re really going to remind her of Speed and The Lake House? At least it’s not Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous.

They are also cutting the performance of the Best Original Song nominees. I’m actually not too concerned about that one, which I know is bad, but I’m just not too familiar with the songs nominated. I’ve heard them, but I have no real attachment to them.

So, here’s where I stand. I don’t watch the Oscars for the fashion, or to see movie stars. I watch to relive the year in film and to find out who won. I just hope that experience isn’t tainted by style over substance.

My Oscar Predictions

So the Oscars are on Sunday. I watch the Oscars every year, I predict every year, and I follow the race to the Oscars throughout the year. Most are like, “What?” It really is a year-long business getting to the Oscars. Every year in law school, I co-hosted Oscar parties and loved them. So, here are my predictions on who will win Oscars on Sunday. Last year, I predicted a personal record of 20/24 correct. I have a Will Win (my prediction) and a Should Win (who I’d pick). You’ll notice I got lazy on the Should Wins after the big categories.



Best Picture

I still don’t agree with the decision to raise the field to ten nominees. If it were five, I think the nominees would be Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Precious, and Up in the Air. But here we are, ten nominees with a preferential voting system that could either work out the way it’s supposed to, or give us a royal shock.

There’s a lot to say about momentum in the Oscar race. Avatar peaked around Golden Globe time, but most of the major guild awards since have gone to The Hurt Locker. I don’t think The Hurt Locker is the film that defines 2009, but I think any voter that doesn’t vote it number one will vote it number two or three. This, because of the preferential voting system, will allow it to win.

Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Up in the Air (in my opinion, a great script, great acting, great cinematography, great etc.)



Best Actor

This belongs to Jeff Bridges. He won the Globe, the SAG and received standing ovations when he won each one. He has previously been nominated for four Oscars without a win. Hollywood thinks he’s due.

Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Should Win: Colin Firth, A Single Man (In any other year, he would be the hands-down winner. A great performance in a film that was robbed of many other nominations it deserved.)



Best Actress

Meryl Streep - almost always the bridesmaid, almost never the bride. Every year, it seems like we’re having the Meryl vs. Whoever discussion. This year it’s Sandra Bullock. If we’re looking at precursors, they tied at the Critics Choice Awards (the cheap knockoff of award shows), they didn’t compete at the Globes (different categories), and Sandra beat Meryl at the SAG awards. Actors voted for Sandra for the SAG…they’ll vote for her again for the Oscar. Plus, The Blind Side got in for Best Picture which gives us a little more insight on how much voters respect the film.

Every year, it’s talked about how overdue Meryl is to win another Oscar (her third). But honestly, I’m not sure people want Meryl’s third Oscar to come for a film where she had less screen time than all of her competitors. What makes it difficult is that she WAS Julia Child.

Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (Her portrayal of Precious was tragic and heartwarming at the same time. What she did in her screen debut was remarkable.)



Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz. 100% He has won everything up to this point, including the uber-prestigious Kansas City Film Critics Circle Award.

Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Should Win: Eh. I haven’t seen enough of the performances to really advocate for anyone.




Best Supporting Actress

Everything I just said about Christoph Waltz? Ditto that for Mo’Nique. The former phone sex operator (all in good fun, folks) was devastatingly perfect as Mary Jones in Precious. I hated her. She’s got this sewn up.

Will Win: Mo’Nique, Precious
Should Win: Mo’Nique, Precious



Best Director

In a year when James Cameron made $999 gajillion dollars and Quentin Tarantino redefined his filmmaking, a (let us be honest) lesser known director made the first accurate cinematic portrayal of the war in Iraq. The industry seems to be rallying around Kathryn Bigelow, and that will carry over to the Oscars. She won the Directors Guild of America award for Best Director, and the person that wins that almost always wins the Oscar. It’s the same voters voting for both awards. When she wins, she will be the first female director to win the award. By the way, she's 59. Look at her. 59.

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Should Win: James Cameron, Avatar (I hate James Cameron, but I respect what he did with Avatar.)

Other Predictions

Best Original Screenplay: Inglorious Basterds
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Animated Feature: Up
Art Direction: Avatar
Cinematography: The White Ribbon
Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Documentary Feature: The Cove
Documentary Short: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
Editing: The Hurt Locker
Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
Makeup: The Young Victoria
Original Score: Up
Original Song: “The Weary Kind”, Crazy Heart
Short Film Animated: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Short Film Live Action: Instead of Abracadabra
Sound Editing: Avatar
Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
Visual Effects: Avatar