Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

Oscar nominations are being announced on Thursday morning.  Here are my final nomination predictions:

Best Picture

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

Moonrise Kingdom

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Denzel Washington, Flight

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Argo

Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Master

Judi Dench, Skyfall

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Django Unchained

Looper

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Silver Linings Playbook

Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Cinematography

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

Skyfall

Production Design

Anna Karenina

Cloud Atlas

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Sound Mixing

The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises

Les Miserables

Zero Dark Thirty

Skyfall

Sound Editing

The Avengers

The Dark Knight Rises

Life of Pi
Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Snow White and the Huntsmen

Original Score

Anna Karenina

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Original Song

“Ancora Qui” – Django Unchained

“Learn Me Right” - Brave

“Skyfall” – Skyfall

“Suddenly” – Les Miserables

“This Gift” – The Odd Life of Timothy Green

Foreign Language Film

A Royal Affair

Amour

Beyond the Hills

The Intouchables

Kon-Tiki

Documentary Feature

5 Broken Cameras

The Gatekeepers

How to Survive a Plague

The Imposter

Searching for Sugar Man

Best Animated Feature

Brave

Frankenweenie

The Painting

ParaNorman

Wreck-It Ralph

Best Visual Effects

The Avengers

The Dark Knight Rises

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Makeup and Hairstyling

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Lincoln

Men in Black 3

Best Animated Short

Adam and Dog

The Eagleman Stag

Fall of the House of Usher

Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare

Paperman

Best Live Action Short

Asad

Curfew

Death of a Shadow

9meter

when you find me

Best Documentary Short

Education of Mohammed Hussein

Mondays at Racine

Open Heart

Paraiso

Redemption

Commentary 

• I have Lincoln earning 13 nominations, which would leave it one shy of tying for the most-nominated film in Oscar history.
• I really hesitate nominating "Maggie Simpson in the Longest Daycare" for Best Animated Short.  If something replaces it, it will be "Dripped."
• I have Skyfall earning six nominations, which would make it the most-nominated film to not earn a Best Picture nomination.
• I know I'm wrong on Best Picture because there are no curveballs. Contenders I considered for the curveball spot were Amour, The Impossible, The Perks of Being a Wallflower and Skyfall.
• There's almost always a non-famous animated film in the Best Animated Film category. I expect that to be The Painting.
• My most "shockeroo" prediction would be Matthew McConaughey. He has received no support for his performance in Magic Mike except from critics. However, I think anyone that wants to vote for him based on the year he's had (Bernie, Magic Mike, The Paperboy, Killer Joe) will vote for his performance in Magic Mike.  Also, I think anyone that actually votes for him will place him high on the ballot.

Oscar Winner Predictions

Going to an Oscar party or entering an Oscar pool?  Here's your ticket to victory:

Picture - The Artist
Director - Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Actor - Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Actress - Viola Davis, The Help
Supporting Actor - Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Supporting Actress - Octavia Spencer, The Help
Original Screenplay - Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay - The Descendants
Foreign Language Film - A Separation (Iran)
Animated Feature - Rango
Art Direction - Hugo
Cinematography - The Artist
Costume Design - The Artist
Editing - The Artist
Score - The Artist
Original Song - "Man or Muppet" (The Muppets)
Sound Editing - Hugo
Sound Mixing - Hugo
Visual Effects - Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Makeup - The Iron Lady
Documentary Feature - Paradise Lost 3
Documentary Short Subject - Saving Face
Live Action Short - The Shore
Animated Short - The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

My Oscar Nomination Predictions

Here are my final predictions of who I think will get Oscar nominations. This is something I do every year. I've always been fascinated by the Oscars (as you can probably tell if you've ever read this blog).  It's not the celebrity part of it, or the fashion, or the speeches that fascinate me.  It's the race, the competition to get a nomination.  There have been numerous critics groups and other entities that have given out awards, and tons of people who try to predict these things online.  It intrigues me how studios strategize about who to promote, when to release films, when to send screeners to voters, who will appear on what talk show when, who gains momentum after a nomination from one critics group but loses traction after they're ignored by the next one, etc., etc.

Yes, you can argue that the campaigning and the politics takes away from recognizing the "best" film or the "best" performance.  For one, anyone who thinks they can identify a "best" film or a "best" performance in any given year is crazy.  The race to the Oscars is one big economics problem (supply/demand, cost/benefit, etc), and I love it!

Here's my futile attempt at predicting.  We'll see how I do.  These are not my preferences - they are my predictions.  You can see my running list of rankings in my previous post.

Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
 
Anywhere from 5-10 films can be nominated this year. No one knows yet how many will be nominated, but I think it will be these seven. Just a hunch.

Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorcese, Hugo
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Actor in a Lead Role
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Actress in a Lead Role
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Actress in a Supporting Role
Bernice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Original Screenplay
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball

Film Editing
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse

Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tree of Life
War Horse

Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Costume Design
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Sound Editing
The Adventures of Tintin
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
War Horse

Sound Mixing
Drive
Hugo
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
War Horse

Makeup
Albert Nobbs 
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady

Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Rise of the Planey of the Apes
Transformers: The Dark of the Moon

Original Score
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse
W.E.

Original Song
"Hello, Hello", Gnomeo and Juliet
"Lay Your Head Down", Albert Nobbs
"Life's A Happy Song", The Muppets
"The Living Proof", The Help
"Man or Muppet", The Muppets

Documentary Feature
Buck
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Project Nim
Semper Fi: Always Faithful

Documentary Short
The Barber of Birmingham
In Tahrir Square: 18 Days of Egypt's Unfinished Revolution
Incident in New Baghdad
Pipe Dreams
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Animated Feature
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Animated Short
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
Luminaris
Magic Piano
Wild Life

Live-Action Short
Love at First Sight
The Road Home
The Roar of the Sea
The Shore
Tuba Atlantic

Foreign-Language Feature
Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Pina
A Separation

Ranking the Oscary Movies

Once again, I've been watching as many Oscary movies as I can, and here's my first attempt at a personal ranking, based purely on my enjoyment of the film:

1. The Artist
2. The Muppets
3. The Descendants
4. Bridesmaids
5. 50/50
6. Midnight in Paris
7. My Week with Marilyn
8.  Martha Marcy May Marlene
9. Shame
10. We Need to Talk About Kevin
11.  The Iron Lady
12. The Help
13. Hugo
14.  Moneyball
15. Warrior
16. Super 8
17. The Ides of March
18. The Tree of Life

Other Movies I Saw in 2011:
1.  Horrible Bosses
2.  Crazy, Stupid Love
3.  Bad Teacher
4.  Just Go With It

Still Need to See:
Albert Nobbs
Beginners
Drive
Rango
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Young Adult

Probably Will Not Watch:
The Adventures of Tintin
Coriolanus
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
J. Edgar
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy
War Horse

The Muppets

I'm not sure why I was hesitant to see The Muppets. I LOVED The Muppet Show, and would watch it every day after kindergarten.  My sister and I had Kermit the Frog and Miss Piggy dolls, and she even took the Kermit the Frog doll with her when she had to go to surgery once as a kid. My favorite lunch pail was, of course, a Muppet Show lunch pail.  Muppet Babies were a staple of Saturday mornings. I've seen the original Kermit the Frog in the Smithsonian (Museum of American History), and made it a point to have my picture taken with him. But I was scared. Scared that The Muppets might not be worth my time, wouldn't be that enjoyable, or that maybe I had outgrown the idea of the Muppets entertaining me.  I was wrong.

You can't help but smile the entire time you're watching The Muppets.  The film introduces a new Muppet to the fold - Walter - who needs a guiding force in his life.  He finds that force in the love he develops for the Muppet crew and Muppet Show culture.  When he gets the chance to go to L.A. with his brother (Jason Segel) and his brother's fiancee (Amy Adams), he can't believe it. A scheduled tour of Muppet Studios turns into a disaster as they quickly realize the place where the magic used to happen is deserted, dilapidated and nearly ruined.  Walter sneaks into Kermit's old office and overhears a meeting with a businessman who plans to buy Muppet Studios, bulldoze it, and seize the oil that's supposedly underneath the land.  This leads to a reunion of the Muppet crew, who plan a telethon to raise money to keep the studios from being bought.  Once they start cleaning, practicing and planning the show, the crew quickly realizes the magic of the Muppets never died.  At the same time, Jason Segel's character must balance his love and support for his brother with the effect these escapades are having on his relationship with Amy Adams's character.

Man, did I love this! The musical numbers are cheesy, but awesome. I fully expect some Best Original Song nominations to come from this.  It perfectly employs classic movie cliches, including two EPIC 80's-style montage sequences. That's what's so great about this movie.  It's not afraid to be silly.  It's not afraid to be heartwarming.  It's well-written.  It's accessible, even if you know nothing about the Muppets.  Plus, Amy Adams and Jason Segel are great, which doesn't hurt one bit.  Don't be surprised if this gets a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture, Musical or Comedy.

This is a very funny movie, and you'll enjoy it.  I don't care how old you are or how young you are - go.  Go now.  Until then, check out two of the songs you could very easily see nominated for Best Original Song at the Oscars:

"Life's a Happy Song"


"Man or Muppet"


Image Courtesy of Disney, 2011. All Rights Reserved.

National Board of Review Winners

50/50 again?  It seems to be making a wave, doesn't it?

The National Board of Review, an exclusive New York-based group of film historians, filmmakers and film students, released their annual list of award winners today.  On the surface, one might wonder what sort of influence a group like this could have, but it's long and storied history provides it with the credibility to be noticed by critics, studios, and ultimately, Oscar voters. 

What I can say about this group is that they're never afraid to think outside the box when voting for their "best in film."  Often, their endorsement of a candidate helps that candidate gain traction with other critics awards.  The list is below.  Hugo being honored as Best Picture and it's director, Martin Scorsese, getting the win for Best Director should help Hugo tremendously.  As well, Tilda Swinton getting Best Actress for We Need to Talk About Kevin (which I haven't seen but have heard fantastic things about), should give her candidacy some great energy as we move through the next few months.  What do you think?  Have you seen any of these yet?

Best Film: Hugo
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Best Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Will Reiser, 50/50
Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Breakthrough Performance: Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
Breakthrough Performance: Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Debut Director: J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Best Ensemble: The Help
Spotlight Award: Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method, Jane Eyre, Shame, X-Men: First Class)
NBR Freedom of Expression: Crime After Crime
NBR Freedom of Expression: Pariah
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Special Achievement in Filmmaking: The Harry Potter Franchise - A Distinguished Translation from Book to Film
 
Top Films
(in alphabetical order)
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
War Horse
 
Top 5 Foreign Language Films
(In Alphabetical Order)
13 Assassins
Elite Squad: The Enemy Within
Footnote
Le Havre
Point Blank

Top 5 Documentaries
(In Alphabetical Order)
Born to be Wild
Buck
George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Project Nim
Senna
 
Top 10 Independent Films
(In Alphabetical Order)
50/50
Another Earth
Beginners
A Better Life
Cedar Rapids
Margin Call
Shame
Take Shelter
We Need To Talk About Kevin
Win Win

New York Film Critics Circle Awards

The New York Film Critics Circle has released their list of honorees for their annual awards.  In my previous post, I mentioned a new found need to see Drive, and that need is confirmed, as they've chosen Albert Brooks as their Best Supporting Actor for his performance in the film.  Critics are known for creating, fostering, or killing buzz, but it's important to remember that critics don't actually vote for Oscar nominees.  However, the Golden Globes are presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a group of international journalists and critics.

The Artist was chosen as Best Picture, and if you haven't heard of it, check out the trailer - it's a silent film that takes you back to 1920's Hollywood:


Here are the list of winners:

Best Picture The Artist
Best Cinematography Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
Best Screenplay Steven Zaillian & Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball
Best Director Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Foreign Language Film A Separation
Best Actor Brad Pitt, Moneyball & The Tree of Life
Best Actress Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Best Supporting Actor Albert Brooks, Drive
Best Supporting Actress Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life, The Help, and Take Shelter
Best First Feature Margin Call
Best Non-Fiction Film Cave of Forgotten Dreams

Spirit Award Nominations

The first major award show to release their nominations each year, the Spirit Awards (formerly Independent Spirit Awards) is always willing to take risks and honor films that the Oscars hesitate to adopt. Of course, the films honored have to meet budget and production restrictions, which makes it a perfect opportunity to give public attention to films that may have only played at local, independent theaters.

On the list of nominations includes a Best Feature nomination for 50/50, which I had actually forgot I had seen until I saw it listed amongst these nominations. That being said, it shocks me that I forgot, because I enjoyed 50/50 quite a bit.  So far, and it's very early, of the films receiving nods here, I've seen Midnight in Paris, 50/50, and Martha Marcy May Marlene.  I keep being pulled away from seeing The Descendants, but I will see that shortly.  I was not planning on placing Drive high on my priority list, and I don't think it will gain much traction anywhere else, but I guess I will add it.

Also interesting is that many are saying Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs is one of two or three people who might beat Meryl Streep this year for Best Actress (the others being Viola Davis for The Help and Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn.)  However, Glenn isn't even nominated here, although her costar Janet McTeer is nominated for Best Supporting Actress. This won't mean a lot in the grand scheme of things, but it's an odd oversight.

For anyone that saw Grand Rapids, was John C. Reilly particularly good or memorable?

Best Feature
50/50
Beginners
Drive
Take Shelter
The Artist
The Descendants

Best Director
Mike Mills, Beginners
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Jeff Nichols, Take Shelter
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Best First Feature
Another Earth
In The Family
Margin Call
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Natural Selection

Best Male Lead
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Ryan Gosling, Drive
Woody Harrelson, Rampart
Michael Shannon, Take Shelter

Best Female Lead
Lauren Ambrose, Think of Me
Rachel Harris, Natural Selection
Adepero Oduye, Pariah
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Best Supporting Male
Albert Brooks, Drive
John Hawkes, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
John C. Reilly, Cedar Rapids
Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris

Best Supporting Female
Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter
Anjelica Huston, 50/50
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Harmony Santana, Gun Hill Road
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

John Cassavetes Award for films made under $500,000
Bellflower
Circumstance
Hello Lonesome
Pariah
The Dynamiter

Best Documentary
An African Selection
Bill Cunningham New York
The Interrupters
The Redemption of General Butt Naked
We Were Here

Best Cinematography
Joel Hodge, Bellflower
Benjamin Kasulke, The Off Hours
Darius Khondji, Midnight in Paris
Guillaume Shiffman, The Artist
Jeffrey Waldron, The Dynamiter

Best First Screenplay
Mike Cahill & Brit Marling, Another Earth
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Patrick DeWitt, Terri
Phil Johnston, Cedar Rapids
Will Reiser, 50/50

Best Screenplay
Joseph Cedar, Footnote
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Tom McCarthy, Win Win
Mike Mills, Beginners
Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Best International Film
A Separation
Melancholia
Shame
The Kid With a Bike
Tyrannosaur

Piaget Producer’s Award
Chad Burris, Mosquita y Mari
Sophia Lin, Take Shelter
Josh Mond, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Someone to Watch Award
Simon Arthur, Silver Tongues
Mark Jackson, Without
Nicholas Ozeki, Mamitas

Truer Than Fiction Award
Heather Courtney, Where Soldiers Come From
Danfung Dennis, Hell and Back Again
Alma Ha’rel, Bombay Beach

Robert Altman Award for ensemble
Margin Call (Penn Badgley, Simon Baker, Paul Bettany, Jeremy Irons, Mary McDonnell, Demi Moore, Zachary Quinto, Kevin Spacey, Stanley Tucci)

Martha Marcy Mae Marlene

I went into Martha Marcy Mae Marlene with no knowledge of the film whatsoever, except the fact that it played to rave reviews at Sundance, Elizabeth Olsen was in it and that she's related to some other famous Olsens. Funny enough, a disaster related to showing up fifteen minutes early for a screening of The Descendants and there only being front row seats left led us to this little film.

Martha is the story of a woman who has escaped from a cult and has taken refuge with her uptight sister and her sister's well-to-d0 husband. Throughout the film, little things trigger her memories of the cult and the sometimes awful things that occurred there. She's always scared that the cult leader (played by John Hawkes) will find out to where she's escaped and come for her, which causes her to not only distrust the family she's staying with, but also herself. The title makes sense as you watch her progression through the cult ranks and through her interactions with her sister and brother-in-law.

The film leaves many unresolved questions, like how she wound up in the cult in the first place, and the ending (which, of course, I don't want to reveal) leaves you wondering as well. Honestly, I felt a little cheated by the ending, not because there wasn't a definitive answer, but because what they did explore in the final scene felt undeveloped.

This is certainly a film that requires time and patience. Watching the first of it, if you don't know what to expect, it's easy to get confused quickly. I know I did, which I know caused me to miss some small details. But now that you've read this, hopefully that won't be a problem for you.

What I noticed is that I never really liked the lead character. I just watched her and appreciated the fear and uneasiness she was going through. But I never felt an attachment to her or ever found myself rooting for her. Despite that, Elizabeth Olsen does a great job at showing restraint when she needs to and emotion when she needs to. She's getting a little bit of Oscar buzz, but I don't think we'll see her contending for Best Actress. John Hawkes, as the leader of the Amish-like cult, does a great job playing the cool, calm, collected, yet scary as hell cult leader. He knows how to keep his followers in check with a soothing voice and a "if you cross me, that's the end of you" implication to everything he says. Watching him in Winter's Bone and now this, I'm convinced he should be to go-to-guy for a grizzled, sinister patriarchal character.

A particular scene that really made me gasp was a shot of Hawkes's women gardening out in the yard. The camera pans over a wide shot of each of them tending to sort part of the yard. In the distance, you can see ominous storm clouds in the sky, and as the camera stops panning, you can see two white crosses in the background (obviously implying that people are buried under those crosses). It's at this point you realize that, for at least some of these women, there may not be a happy ending.

If you decide to see this, be ready to pay close attention and have some lingering questions when you're done. But really, that's a good thing, right?

Image courtesy Fox Searchlight Pictures, 2011. All Rights Reserved.

My Week with Marilyn

It's Oscar season! So begins my five month journey into watching lots of artsy films and trying to predict who will win different film awards. I won (tied) AMC Theatre's Oscar Prediction Contest in 2011, so we're looking for a two-peat! And away we go...

I watched the first Oscar-y contender of the year, Midnight in Paris, earlier in the year, but I neglected to write a blog post on it. I guess I'll need to catch it again on DVD in order to properly summarize it for you, my seven loyal readers. Well technically, I guess I've seen two Oscar-y films so far. Bridesmaids is starting to get buzz for Melissa McCarthy as Best Supporting Actress and for Best Original Screenplay, two things that are completely shocking to me. I would love it if Melissa McCarthy got a Best Supporting Actress nomination, but no way was I going to stick my head out and predict that before she started having the best year of her life, career wise.

On to the task at hand - My Week with Marilyn. I received free passes for this film, so I decided to check it out. It's getting Oscar buzz for Michelle Williams as Best Actress and Kenneth Branagh as Best Supporting Actor. The story revolves around a young man getting a job with Laurence Olivier's film studio, meeting Marilyn on set, and developing a kinship with her during the filming of The Prince and the Showgirl.

I was entertained throughout the film. It was a story that kept me interested and intrigued. However, it didn't leave me passionate about either Michelle Williams or Kenneth Branagh and their chances for Oscars. I never got past the fact that it was Michelle Williams playing Marilyn Monroe. I was never absorbed enough to forget that it was Michelle Williams I was watching. Michelle had Marilyn's mannerisms down, and had more than a passing resemblance, but I never got sucked in. Kenneth Branagh's portrayal of Laurence Olivier did nothing for me, really. Honestly, my two favorite parts of the film were Judi Dench in her miniscule role as Dame Sybil Thorndike, a senior actress who ends up supporting Marilyn when the rest of the film crew dismisses her talents and her antics, and Eddie Redmayne, who played the eager third assistant director who got to spend the titular "week with Marilyn." Both Dench and Redmayne provided humor to the film, and provided great support to Michelle Williams in critical scenes.

Most Oscarologists won't share my opinion of Michelle Williams's portrayal, and she'll coast to a nomination. Kenneth Branagh will likely receive one as well. But don't expect either to win. But even with these minor criticisms, this still is a very good film.

I'm seeing The Descendants tonight, again thanks to a free screening of the film before it hits theaters. For now, let me begin my yearly ranking of Oscar-y films:

1. Midnight in Paris
2. My Week with Marilyn
3. Bridesmaids
4. Super 8
5. The Hangover 2

And the blog is being funky, so if you want to see older blog posts, please click "Older Posts."

Image courtesy of The Weinstein Company, 2011. All rights reserved.

Oscar Season - The Gift That Kept on Giving

Swag giveaways are hosted throughout Oscar weekend, where stars and semi-stars can stop by and grab free products from various sponsors and retailers. Like these stars, I got my hands on quite a bit of swag this Oscar season. Based on how lucky I was, I should have played Vegas....

It started in the fall, when I attended a free showing of 127 Hours. At the event, the organizers asked attendees to like them on Facebook, with the promise that a contest would be posted on their Facebook page the next day for their followers. I "liked" them, the contest was posted, and guess who won?



I received a bounty of gifts, including a 127 Hours poster, a customized Nalgene bottle, a carabiner (a keychain, not for actual climbing), and a t-shirt like James Franco wore in the film! I wore the t-shirt on Oscar night.

Not soon after this, the thought of free screenings appealed to me and I entered an online contest for two free passes to see The Fighter. Guess what? The film was very good.

Before I move on, I will point out that, although not at all Oscar related, I won an Amazon Kindle from my bank soon after the Fighter screening. Yes, a fully functioning, $139 value, Amazon Kindle. Again, not Oscar related, but ironically, I was watching Winter's Bone when I got the phone call that I had won. Also in early February, I was notified that the publishers of the new book, Final Jeopardy!, about the IBM computer Watson playing Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter, would send me a free copy as a token of appreciation for giving them feedback on some errors on their website. But I have not yet received this book, and am getting more and more suspicious that it might not be coming at all. So, I'll count it in this haul when I actually receive it.

Fast forward a couple of months to late February, when I decide to enter a contest to win free passes to AMC's 24 Hour Oscar Marathon, where in case you couldn't guess, they show all ten Best Picture nominees back-to-back in the span of 24 hours. This prize was for 2 $50 value all-access passes to the event, plus two $20 AMC gift cards. Well....



Winner winner, chicken dinner. I had already seen all ten Best Picture nominees, but I went and enjoyed myself immensely. I also won a t-shirt of The Other Guys for answering an Oscar trivia question during the event - naming the four boxing films to be nominated for Best Picture* (answer at the end).

And along comes Oscar night. Before the show, I notice that lawrence.com is hosting an Oscar prediction contest, with the top four ballots receiving two free passes to Hollywood Theaters. Needless to say, I will be attending a free movie at Hollywood Theaters soon :-).



So yes, Oscar season has been very good to me. Although I can't estimate exactly the dollar value of my winnings, you have to figure $140 for the AMC event, $10 for the AMC event t-shirt, probably $25 for the 127 Hours prize pack, and $20 for the two Hollywood Theaters passes. Can't really put a value on the Fighter passes, because it was passes to a free event, not an event everyone else in attendance had to pay for. So, around a $200 haul, just for striving to watch the ten Best Picture nominees. Of course this means I have to top that dollar amount next year.....

EDIT: Today, March 4, 2011, three things occurred: 1) My Final Jeopardy! book arrived, so I can add that to the total. 2) I guess I got more predictions right than Roger Ebert when I entered his contest, so I won a three-month membership to mubi.com, a website that streams independent and international films, and 3) I found out tied for first in the AMC Theaters Oscar Prediction Contest, so I won 10 free movie tickets! The top prize was a year's worth of movies, so if I only got one more right, I would have won that outright! But still, 10 free tickets is a $100 value, so I'm stoked!!! I can now estimate my official haul to be worth $350 worth of loot for this Oscar season!

* the four boxing films nominated for Best Picture were Rocky, Raging Bull, Million Dollar Baby, and The Fighter.

Oscar Thoughts

Couldn't blog sooner (work obligations), so here are my thoughts on my fave things (and my criticisms) of the Oscars:

- Many people are scorning the hosts for their lack of chemistry. I pretty much agree. Anne Hathaway was great - no complaints there. James Franco was stiff, and although I generally get his sense of humor, it didn't even really seem like he wanted to be there. I'd welcome Anne back, without James.

- Auto-Tuned Movies was great.

- "That's gross" - Cate Blanchett presenting Best Makeup!!

- I feel bad for Annette Bening. Natalie Portman was brilliant, but so was Annette. She better just keep searching for Oscar baity roles, because time's ticking. Ditto Amy Adams (although time's not really ticking yet for her).

- The standing ovation for Billy Crystal was a less than subtle "fuck you" to James and Anne. "Come back Billy; come back now!"

- I was making fun of Randy Newman for always winning Oscars and always being there, until I realized that he's only won twice out of 20 nominations. Then I felt really bad for him, and happy that he won. I fell in love with Toy Story 3, though, so it's all good to me.

- Rocked predictions, as evidenced by the previous post. 19/24 (would have been 20/24 if I hadn't changed my mind about Art Direction).

- The Bob Hope hologram was awkward, unnecessary, and not funny. Really, having Bob Hope introduce Jude Law and Robert Downey, Jr.? Why?

- Melissa Leo's speech was my favorite of the night. Dropping the f-bomb, stealing Kirk Douglas's cane, everything about her is awesome. Although the "pinch me" comment seemed more than a little forced.

- I must be dead inside, but I was not a fan of the PS 122 Children's Choir closing the show.

- Now that they actually didn't do the five people introducing the five Best Actor and Actress nominees, I realize I kinda liked it when they did that. Bring it back. isn't it almost time for another Oscar winners reunion?

- True Grit went 0-10. Not cool, Academy, not cool.

- I'm going to make the score to The Social Network the new soundtrack of my life.

- Jennifer Hudson needs to loosen up when she's presenting on award shows. Why so serious?

- Tom Hooper, director of The King's Speech, was on the EDGE. OF. HIS. SEAT. He shot up faster than a __________________ (you can fill in the blank).

- The performance of "If I Rise" was pretty much interchangeable with the performance of "In the Deep" from Crash when that was performed a few years ago.

- Gwyneth Paltrow is country music's newest star? News to me.

But despite the snarkiness that abounds from this blog post, I enjoyed the show. But I don't really think I could ever not enjoy the Oscars. Especially when watching it with friends.

My Oscar Predictions

Image: www.chestees.com (buy one!)

It is 11:00am on Oscar Sunday, and here are my final predictions:

Best Picture - The King's Speech
Best Director - Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Best Actor - Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress - Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress - Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay -The Social Network
Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 3
Best Editing - The Social Network
Best Cinematography - True Grit
Best Art Direction - Inception
Best Sound Mixing - Inception
Best Sound Effects Editing - Inception
Best Costume Design - Alice in Wonderland
Best Makeup - The Wolfman
Best Visual Effects - Inception
Best Original Score - The Social Network
Best Original Song - "We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film - In a Better World (Denmark)
Best Documentary Feature - Inside Job
Best Documentary Short - Poster Girl
Best Live Action Short - Wish 143
Best Animated Short - The Gruffalo

My Personal Oscar Rankings - Not Predictions

In this post, I will rank the contenders in each of the major categories based on how I would vote if given the opportunity. These are not my predictions.

Best Picture (saw all ten)
I’ve done something this year that I definitely didn’t do last year – I saw all ten Best Picture nominees. Based on my enjoyment of the films and my thoughts on their deservedness of Best Picture:

1. The Social Network (How have our lives and the way we interact changed by Facebook? When is an idea just an idea? Does money really define who we are? How far should we go to get what we want? As cliche as it seems, this might be the film of our generation.)
   
2. The King's Speech (I loved both the top two, but what sealed it for me was realizing I didn't enjoy The King's Speech as much the second time I watched it as the first. The Social Network held up just as well on the second...and third...viewing).
   
3. The Fighter
4. True Grit (I really liked this, which surprised me)
   
5. 127 Hours
6. Toy Story 3 (cried a little)
   
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. Black Swan
   
9. Winter’s Bone
10. Inception (not a fan, but in fairness, I only saw it on DVD)
    

Best Director (saw all five)

1. David Fincher, The Social Network (I think Fincher did some cool things and paced his film in a way that made it more entertaining. The regatta scene is the most beautiful scene I've seen all year. Hooper's film was beautiful, but some of his camera angles were distracting and some of his pacing was a bit slow in crucial scenes.)
   
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
3. David O. Russell, The Fighter
4. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (Also to blame is the cinematographer, but the last five minutes of green screening was distracting.)
   
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Best Actor (saw 4/5)

1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (brilliant once again; should have won last year for A Single Man)
2. James Franco, 127 Hours (the game show scene made me tear up)
   
3. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (I actually forgot I was watching Jeff Bridges)
   
4. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (after seeing him on SNL, I'm not sure he was acting)
   
5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (haven’t seen it)

Best Actress (saw 3/5)

1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (didn't need blood, sweat and tears to make this role work)
   
2. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
   
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (haven’t seen it)
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (haven’t seen it)

Best Supporting Actress (saw all five)

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (hair and mom jeans were a bit distracting, but I enjoyed it)
   
2. Amy Adams, The Fighter (a VERY close second)
   
3. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (should be in Best Actress - she's on screen for basically the entire film)
   
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The Fighter
5. Jackie Weaver, Animal Kingdom (would replace with Mila Kunis, Black Swan or Dale Dickey, Winter’s Bone)

Best Supporting Actor (saw all five)

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (In this role, I liked him. Terminator: Salvation? Not so much.)
   
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (funny)
   
3. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
4. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (would replace with Andrew Garfield, The Social Network)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town (would replace with Armie Hammer, The Social Network)

As you’ll find in my next post, I’m pretty sure my #1 in all but two of these categories will go on to win the Oscar. Does that mean I have great taste? Yes, yes it does. J My predictions will be in all categories, not just these major ones.

My 100% Correct (?) Oscar Predictions - EDITED WITH RESULTS

Here they are - feel free to check back and marvel at how amazingly accurate I am. They will be announced tomorrow morning.

Best Picture (10/10)
127 Hours*
Black Swan*
The Fighter*
Inception*
The Kids Are All Right*
The King's Speech*
The Social Network*
Toy Story 3*
True Grit*
Winter's Bone*
Alternate: The Town

Best Director (4/5) - 5/5 if you count alternate
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan*
David Fincher, The Social Network*
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech*
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter*
Alternate: The Coen Brothers, True Grit*-

Best Actor (5/5)
Javier Bardem, Biutiful*
Jeff Bridges, True Grit*
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network*
Colin Firth, The King's Speech*
James Franco, 127 Hours*
Alternate: Robert Duvall, Get Low

Best Actress (4/5)
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right*
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole*
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone*
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan*
Alternate: Hilary Swank, Conviction OR Hailee Steinfeld gets placed here instead of Supporting, True Grit

Best Supporting Actor (4/5)
Christian Bale, The Fighter*
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone*
Jeremy Renner, The Town*
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech*
Alternate: Michael Douglas, Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps

Best Supporting Actress (4/5) - 5/5 if you count alternate
Amy Adams, The Fighter*
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech*
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter*
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit*
Alternate: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom*

Best Original Screenplay (4/5) - 5/5 if you count alternate
Black Swan
The Fighter*
Inception*
The Kids Are All Right*
The King's Speech*
Alternate: Another Year*

Best Adapted Screenplay (5/5)
127 Hours*
The Social Network*
Toy Story 3*
True Grit*
Winter's Bone*
Alternate: The Town

Editing (only 8 times in Oscar history has a film not nominated here won Best Picture) (4/5)
127 Hours*
Black Swan*
The King's Speech*
Inception
The Social Network
Alternate: True Grit*

Cinematography (how purty the film looks onscreen) (5/5)
Black Swan*
Inception*
The King's Speech*
The Social Network*
True Grit*
Alternate: 127 Hours

Art Direction (4/5) with alternate, 5/5
Alice in Wonderland*
Black Swan
Inception*
The King's Speech*
True Grit*
Alternate: Harry Potter (whichever Harry Potter came out this year)*

Animated Feature (3/3)
How to Train Your Dragon*
The Illusionist*
Toy Story 3*
Alternate: Tangled

Sound Mixing (3/5)
Black Swan
Inception*
The Social Network*
Tron Legacy
True Grit*
Alternate: Iron Man 2

Sound Effects Editing (4/5)
Black Swan
Inception*
Toy Story 3*
Tron Legacy*
True Grit*
Alternate: How to Train Your Dragon

Costume Design (4/5)
Alice in Wonderland*
Black Swan
The King's Speech*
The Tempest*
True Grit*
Alternate: Tron Legacy

Visual Effects (4/5)
Alice in Wonderland*
Harry Potter*
Inception*
Iron Man 2*
Tron Legacy
Alternate: Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Makeup (1/3)
Alice in Wonderland
The Fighter
The Wolfman*
Alternate: True Grit

Original Score (4/5) with alternate, 5/5
127 Hours*
Alice in Wonderland
Inception*
The King's Speech*
The Social Network*
Alternate: How to Train Your Dragon

Original Song (there probably won't be 5 nominees here, but who knows) (3/4) - with alternate, 4/4
"If I Rise" (127 Hours)*
"I See the Light" (Tangled)*
"Shine" (Waiting for 'Superman')
"You Belong To Me" (Toy Story 3)*
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" (Burlesque)
Alternate: "Coming Home" (Country Strong)*

Foreign Language Film (3/5) - with alternate, 4/5
Biutiful (Mexico)*
Confessions (Japan)
Dogtooth (Greece)*
Even the Rain (Spain)
In a Better World (Denmark)*
Alternate: Incendies (Canada)*

Documentary Feature (3/5) - with alternate, 4/5
Exit Through the Gift Shop*
Inside Job*
Restrepo*
The Tillman Story
Waiting for 'Superman'
Alternate: Waste Land*

I would try and predict the shorts, but honestly, I would just be stealing them from other predictions online. I don't even know what's eligible n those categories.

Ranking the Oscar-Eligible Films

I didn't see many movies during the first half of 2010, so now I'm playing catch up - I realize my list below is pretty pathetic. Plus, this is heavy film season (aka Oscar season), so the selection increases. Here is a ranking of the films I've seen this year. This ranking will change as I see new films.

1. The King's Speech
2. The Social Network
3. Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work
4. 127 Hours
5. The Fighter
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. Toy Story 3
8. Black Swan
9. Restrepo
10. The Last Exorcism
11. Exit Through the Gift Shop
12. Date Night
13. The Lottery
14. Alice in Wonderland
15. The Ghost Writer
16. I'm Still Here

To be watched very soon...
Inception
Inside Job
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
Waiting for Superman

I might get around to it....
Easy A
How to Train Your Dragon
The Tillman Story
The Town
True Grit
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (ONLY because friends and I are planning to watch it with Riff-Trax).